Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
